It is too bad Carl Sagan is not around today. He was an outstanding scientist and a great communicator. In 1980, Sagan developed and narrated a 13-part PBS television series, Cosmos: A Personal Voyage.
Sagan was not only a television personality and scientist but also an outstanding educator and author. One of his lasting contributions to science and logic was a chapter in one of his last books (The Demon-Haunted World) before his untimely death. His Baloney Detection Kit was not limited to science. Anyone can use it in everyday life to avoid falling for conmen, propaganda, flim-flap schemes, and foolish mistakes.
The tools in Sagan’s baloney detection kit are:
- When confronted with representations assumed to be “facts”, use independent sources to verify the “facts.”
- Engage in civilized debates with knowledgeable proponents of all perspectives.
- Assume that no one has a monopoly on truth. A corollary of this is just because a person is an expert in physics, does not mean he is an expert in medieval art.
- You should approach any mystery with multiple hypotheses and keep an open mind.
- Do not let your ego cause you to trust and focus on your favorite hypothesis.
- Wherever possible, create tests that allow you to quantify or otherwise measure relevant variables associated with your hypothesis.
- If there is a chain of assumptions to be tested, make sure that each link is the chain is tested and verified.
- Use Occam’s Razor.
- All hypotheses must be testable. If a hypothesis cannot falsified, then do not use it.
- Sagan also enumerated a number of established logical operations and activities that help to minimize invalid logical conclusions. Among these logical practices are: begging the question, selective observation, meaningless questions, etc.
Sagan ends this chapter with:
Like all tools, the baloney detection kit can be misused, applied out of context, or even employed as a rote alternative to thinking. But applied judiciously, it can make all the difference in the world — not least in evaluating our own arguments before we present them to others.
Sagan’s baloney detection kit might sound very highbrow and boringly scientific. However, unless we are stranded alone on an island, we all confront puzzles, decisions, and mysteries every day. We are continually confronted with “facts” to make decisions about friendships, culture, religion, politics, purchasing goods and services, etc. Whether by connivance or innocence, individuals, groups, or organizations present “facts” to encourage people to believe their “facts” and side with their point of view. If a person lacks a robust baloney detection kit, they are doomed to be manipulated and controlled by others. Over time, manipulated people become pawns in an ever-downward spiral of subordination.
